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EUGENE — Call me a glass-half-full kind of guy, but I think Oregon fans are still justified in feeling a little giddy about beating Penn State.
And I think the Ducks are as ready for No. 7 Indiana as they could be coming into Game 6.
I know, I know. Penn State’s absolute faceplant in Pasadena. Previously-winless UCLA’s triumphant upset at the Rose Bowl took the shine right off Oregon’s Week 5 whiteout win. And worse, the Ducks sat on a bye week without a fresh, new win to shush the naysayers spinning that nonsense narrative that Oregon hasn’t played anybody.
But the facts are:
The Ducks took a physical and mental toll on Penn State, destroying their whole identity from the look of it against UCLA.
A frustrated, previously winless UCLA squad found advantages against Penn State’s diminished momentum and depleted lineup.
But Oregon-Indiana was always bound to be a big game, regardless of all the other plot twists in all the other weeks of the season.
No matter what “they” say about Penn State or about Oregon’s strength of schedule, this Indiana-Oregon game looked from the start like it would be pivotal for the Ducks in the conference race. It was always either a get-right game or a stay-right game.
Nothing’s changed about that.
Penn State’s in the rearview. UCLA’s too talented not to spoil somebody’s season sooner or later.
Oregon’s the same team with the same goal. Dan Lanning is the same coach on the same mission. And beating Penn State in a double-OT whiteout, that’s still the kind of win that gives you swagger.
What we learned at Penn State
Fair enough, that double-overtime win at Penn State is a blueprint for where this 2025 Oregon team can be bent, even broken.
What if the defense hadn’t saved the day?
What if the offense lost its poise?
Those are exactly the kinds of pain points Indiana’s game plan is working toward this week. And Oregon, of course, is working just as hard to improve.
Here’s what we learned from the Game 5 whiteout win:
Oregon showed real grit. QB1 Dante Moore engineered clutch drives. He answered when Penn State struck back in the fourth quarter. He kept Oregon in it throughout overtime.
The defense stood tall in OT. Dillon Thieneman’s interception to end it speaks volumes. On both sides of the ball, Oregon players still had gas in the tank to make the difference in overtime.
Where they were vulnerable. Oregon settled for a 3-3 tie at halftime, then blew a 14-point lead down the stretch. Penn State’s offense found seams in the second half. With a faster start by Penn State or without Thieneman making the play of his life in overtime, Game 5 could’ve easily gone the other way.
Keys vs. Indiana
Regardless of what happened for Penn State against Oregon and UCLA, this Oregon-Indiana game was always an enormous factor for the Ducks, for the Big Ten standings, and for next month’s playoff race.
For Oregon to put a ranked win on tape at Autzen Stadium on Saturday, here’s what has to happen:
Ball security & limiting big plays. Oregon came within a blade of grass of a game-changing turnover at Penn State with that fumble call that was reversed by replay review to keep Oregon in possession. Game 6 will be another ranked matchup where every possession matters, and turnovers would be a backbreaker. On the other side, Indiana is extremely well-coached and has explosive weapons. Oregon’s defense will need to eliminate the big gains that flip field position.
Control the trenches. Indiana is a classic Big Ten roster, not a spread-option finesse team. Oregon will have to win up front, both in blocking and defensive line play. Whether Indiana establishes a push on either side will be just as much of a tone-setter as sudden-change turnovers could be.
Tempo & clock management. One of the most unsung strengths for Oregon at Penn State was the Ducks’ late-game and overtime stamina. Oregon's 6-deep RB rotation and quality depth in the trenches bring opportunities for the Ducks’ pace to keep Indiana’s defense off balance and force the Hoosiers’ offense into passing downs.
Third downs & situational execution. Converting more third downs (6-18 vs. Penn State), facing fewer fourth downs (5-7 vs. Penn State), and flawless execution in the red zone are top priorities.
Defensive discipline. Under Head Coach Curt Cignetti, Indiana actively seeks over-pursuit on play-action and misdirection. The Hoosiers offense is very well balanced (through five games: 1,352 pass; 1339 rush). Oregon will need to play gap-sound with no letdown, make the first tackle, and contain Indiana’s receivers.
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Oregon’s path forward
Coming into Game 6, Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State sit in a three-way tie for first in the Big Ten (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten).
Oregon-Indiana reduces that tie by one, and No. 1 Ohio State faces No. 17 Illinois.
At worst: Saturday’s winner leaves Autzen in a first-place tie at 6-0, 3-0 for the Big Ten lead.
If Ohio State falters vs. Illinois: The Oregon-Indiana winner could take command of the Big Ten race.
With Oregon’s biggest 2025 win followed by Penn State folding to previously winless UCLA, the Ducks don’t have the strength of schedule talking point to fall back on at the moment. Here at midseason, this Indiana game is mission-critical for Oregon to stay with the lead pack in the national polls.
The Hoosiers are solid and very well coached. I wouldn’t be surprised if Oregon-Indiana is another close one for the Ducks. And, as we saw in the two meetings of the Ducks vs. Ohio State last season, those close ones can go either way on any given Saturday.
Winner controls their destiny. And a conference loss can still leave you a path to the College Football Playoff, where it’s a brand new season.
The bottom line
Ohio State is the Big Ten frontrunner all the way back to the preseason conference poll. Or back to the national title they’re defending, if you look at it that way.
Michigan and Illinois likely aren’t direct threats for the conference title, but they’re more than capable of spoiling somebody’s season. And Ohio State still has to face both of them.
Penn State, with two conference losses, is essentially out of the Big Ten title race, but could be extremely disruptive in the conference standings if they regain momentum. And after Oregon, Indiana still has to face Michigan and Penn State.
For Saturday’s winner, loser, and the rest of the conference, there’s a lot of Big Ten plot twists left to play out.
The Ducks are an instant Big Ten power since they joined the conference last season. But the Rose Bowl playoff loss showed just how tight the margins can be.
The days and weeks ahead will test Oregon’s talent, depth, and resolve.
Duck Nation, we’re mostly an optimistic bunch. So, Oregon fans, enjoy the ride! These are the good times. And for us, the best is yet to come.
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