Lessons in Game 10; what's ahead vs USC
Nov. 22: USC at Oregon, fans wear BLACK
EUGENE — Friday night’s win over Minnesota was a declaration: Oregon is making a legit run at a playoff spot!
The Ducks pummeled Minnesota 42–13, but the toughest tests are still ahead.
Next up is CFP No. 15 USC on Saturday in a clash of the expanded Big Ten’s new West Coast powers.
Then, Washington at Husky Stadium to close the Big Ten regular season.
USC is likely the last shot at a ranked opponent in the regular season for CFP No. 7 Oregon.
The Trojans bring their usual mix of flashy skill players, that relentless repetition of the fight song by the marching band, and bottomless ego from Head Coach Lincoln Riley. Classic USC Football.
For all of Oregon’s Nike gear and Uncle Phil jersey innovation, the Ducks bring a counterpoint of blue-collar grit and ear-splitting Duck Nation hostility.
There’s no home-field advantage like a fired-up Autzen crowd. Over the years, I’ve had shell-shocked visiting fans from three different time zones ask me: “Do you guys stand and keep up this noise for the whole game?”
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What we learned vs. Minnesota
Dante Moore masterclass. Moore went 27-of-30 for 306 yards and two TDs, an Oregon program record 90% single-game completion percentage.
Kenyon Sadiq career-best. TE1 returned to form with a scoring catch and a career-high 96 receiving yards.
Run game still the backbone. Even on a record-setting passing day, true freshman RB Jordon Davison rushed for 57 yards and two scores. The Ducks piled up 179 rushing yards total, with Noah Whittington and Jay Harris adding one rushing TD each.
Defense imposing its will. Oregon held Minnesota to just 200 total yards and 62 rushing yards, a testament to the physical, blue-collar identity coach Dan Lanning builds.
Oregon's home finale vs USC loaded with CFP implications
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The road ahead
Oregon vs. USC and Washington will weigh heavily in December’s playoff seeding, and could decide a few recruiting battles too.
Key for Oregon vs. USC: Control the line of scrimmage. Limit big plays through the air. Force USC to grind, then punish them on the ground.
Key for Oregon at Washington: Quiet the crowd early. Discipline and dominance. Win the turnover battle.
National landscape
For what the national expert predictions are worth, Pro Football Network estimates Oregon’s likelihood of reaching the CFP as an at-large team at roughly 80 percent. (PFN rates USC’s playoff chances at 21 percent.)
Other national analysts believe Oregon can punch their ticket to the playoff with more of the same November toughness that characterized the Ducks’ wins over Iowa and Minnesota.
The Trojans’ season hinges on a statement win in Eugene, so Oregon can expect to get USC’s best.
Similarly, a Group-of-Five champ can bump an at-large Power-4 team. The pressure’s on Oregon to win out with style points to establish any comfort level coming into December’s playoff seeding.
That said, the losses baked into conference title games could indirectly boost Oregon. For example, No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Indiana and No. 3 Texas A&M vs. Georgia are two Top 4 loss scenarios that could potentially elevate Oregon a spot or two in the final CFP rankings.
The bottom line
The surest playoff path for the Ducks is to win out.
Split these last two, and there may still be a chance.
A three-loss Oregon would most likely drop from the CFP into a bowl game.
The Ducks’ margin for error is razor-thin. But Oregon’s blueprint is the championship vision Lanning imported from his time at Georgia.
The potential is there for a solid playoff run: Consistency in the run game. Physical defense. QB1 composure in command of a balanced attack.
It all comes down to taking care of business now.
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Dante Moore's 90% completion rate is absoutly jaw-dropping. The balance between his passing prowess and the ground game is exactly what Oregon needs for a deep playoff run. Holding Minnesota to just 200 total yards shows the defense is clicking at the right time. The USC matchup will be a real test of wether this team can handle pressure from a flashy opponent, but if the Ducks controL the line of scrimmage like they did against Minnesota, they should be in great shape.