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EUGENE — Even after Oregon’s 56-10 get-right win at Rutgers on Saturday, fairweather fans and the new kids on the bandwagon are still waking up sour on the whole season over Oregon opening October with that Game 6 loss to Indiana.
You have to be really new to the game to miss the fact that Oregon comes into the second half of October exactly where defending national champ Ohio State was a year ago. And we saw that turn into a natty, even after Ohio State took a second loss last November.
So, if your football IQ is lean enough that you’re confused, angry, or hopeless even with Oregon sitting at AP No. 6 this week, maybe look to OG Duck Nation from the Gang Green years or former Oregon players. Then or now, in any era, a 6-1 record with half the regular season left is a position of strength.
It’s true, a Big Ten loss at any point in the regular season makes it extremely challenging to reach the conference title game. But one loss hurts a top 10 team far less in November’s playoff conversation.
For what it’s worth, Vegas has Oregon as a five-TD favorite this week against Wisconsin. True, that doesn’t put a single point on the scoreboard, but that kind of point spread doesn’t come unless the college football universe sees the Ducks as capable of dominating.
One thing there’s no disputing about Head Coach Dan Lanning’s Oregon teams, they win the games they’re expected to win. Even last year in Madison, when underdog Wisconsin dragged Oregon into old-school trench warfare, the Ducks found a workaround for the 16-13 win.
Big Ten games are rarely easy wins, but Wisconsin is struggling significantly this year.
This year’s point spread might seem like a stretch from the 2024 reality of this matchup. But Wisconsin (0-4 Big Ten) is struggling, and this time, Oregon has one of the best homefield environments in the nation on its side. It’s hard not to feel some confidence that Lanning’s Ducks will find a way to take control on Saturday.
What we’ve learned so far
Defending Big Ten champions and a top 10 team nationally again this year, the Ducks are very close to building something special.
Oregon’s defense is forcing turnovers and showing some of the edge you need to survive in December and January.
QB1 Dante Moore has Oregon’s offense humming:
1,686 pass yards & 19 TDs
8 Ducks with receiving TDs; 5 with rushing TDs
Noah Whittington, team-high 336 rush yards
Dakorien Moore, team-high 398 receiving yards
Jordon Davison, team-high 8 TDs
Fan Guide: UO-Wisconsin
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Echoes of 2024 Ohio State
Here’s the wide view: Oregon is in the same spot Ohio State was at this point last season.
No choice now but to watch Indiana ride high as the undefeated rising contender. That L next to Oregon in the standings still stings. But 2024 Ohio State proved that an October defeat leaves nothing out of reach for a one-loss top 10 team.
Oregon is young but battle-tested, extremely talented, and Wisconsin is one of the five remaining regular-season games for Oregon to prove its playoff potential.
Ohio State lost twice in conference last year and still went on to win the national championship. If Oregon takes care of business now with Big Ten wins and style points to stay afloat in the rankings, you could argue they’re on that same trajectory.
Oregon fans, these next few games aren’t just about the teams that made it this far unbeaten. Everything matters for the Ducks now. Oregon’s playoff run essentially starts with the win at Rutgers and marching forward against Wisconsin. This is Oregon’s chance to build a playoff resume, solidify its identity, and steamroll into playoff seeding.
Every week, now through January, every matchup is Oregon’s biggest game of the year, which is actually great for Oregon fans. Every game is meaningful now.
Even heavily favored this week against Wisconsin, this game impacts where the Ducks will land at the end of November.
Win out convincingly, make statements, and the narrative will shift from whether Oregon has an outside shot at the conference title game to who likes Oregon to the CFP final four.
Oregon’s path forward
A dominant win over Wisconsin would keep Oregon in striking distance of the conference leaders and firmly in the playoff hunt.
Indiana and Ohio State are the obvious frontrunners for the Big Ten crown, but the year’s plot twists in the conference race likely haven’t all played out. Last season, the November stretch run was loaded with three- and four-team tiebreaker scenarios to decide the matchup for the Big Ten title game.
Ohio State still has to face wildcard Penn State and a potential trap game at Michigan.
Indiana still has to face wildcard UCLA and a potential trap game at Penn State.
Whether it’s enough to change Oregon’s conference season or not, it’s entirely possible there’s a Big Ten surprise or two in the weeks ahead. Here at the literal midpoint of the conference season, just about anything could still happen on any given Saturday.
Looking past Wisconsin, Oregon fans can look forward to November sparks, including:
A Big Ten classic: On the road to face Iowa’s always stout defense.
Home stand: Fiesty Minnesota and USC at Autzen.
Rivalry week: Any conference; any circumstances, the Oregon Football program wants to beat the Washington Huskies. In this expanded Big Ten era, conference wins over UW mean even more. A win at Husky Stadium to close the regular season would be a chef’s-kiss moment!
In short: This is finish-strong territory; time to build velocity. The November schedule gives the Ducks the chance to close out with momentum and swagger.
The bottom line
Duck Nation, it’s true that a 6-1 record at the halfway point is cause for cautious optimism. But you should feel some excitement too.
In the 12-team playoff era, everything is still in Oregon’s reach.
When Oregon takes the field against Wisconsin, be loud. Be hopeful. And most importantly, believe. Because this 2025 Oregon team has a chance to break through, and this Wisconsin game is a major stepping-stone.
Oregon isn’t just chasing wins now, it’s chasing the kind of season you’ll tell your kids and grandkids about for years to come.
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